Brent crude oil prices could fall below HSBC’s forecast of $65 per barrel later this year, as OPEC+ plans to boost production and create a larger-than-expected supply surplus after the summer, the bank said in a note Friday, according to Reuters.
HSBC now expects OPEC+ to continue raising output from October through December, fully reversing the group’s 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in voluntary cuts by the end of 2025.
OPEC+ recently announced a 411,000 bpd production increase for July, citing steady global economic growth and strong oil market fundamentals. HSBC anticipates further increases of 411,000 bpd in August and 274,000 bpd in September. These moves would compress five months’ worth of smaller hikes into just two months.
Currently, the oil market remains balanced, and high summer demand is expected to absorb the announced supply increases through July. However, once demand drops after the third quarter, HSBC warns that the market could tip into a surplus.
“Deteriorating fundamentals after summer raise downside risks to oil prices and our $65/b assumption from 4Q onwards,” HSBC analysts wrote.
Other banks have different views on how OPEC+ will act. Goldman Sachs expects one final hike in August at the standard 411,000 bpd level. Meanwhile, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey believe the group will complete its 2.2 million bpd supply restoration by the end of the third quarter — a full year ahead of schedule.That outlook supports ING’s Brent price forecast of $59 per barrel for the fourth quarter.