Crude oil prices rebounded over the weekend, marking their first weekly gain in three weeks. The increase came after oil rose more than $1 per barrel, supported by a positive U.S. jobs report and renewed trade discussions between the U.S. and China. These factors boosted hopes for growth in the world’s two largest economies.
Brent crude futures closed at $66.47 per barrel, up $1.13 or 1.73%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $64.58, rising $1.21 or 1.91%. Both benchmarks recorded weekly gains after two weeks of decline. Brent has risen 2.75% so far this week, while WTI gained 4.9%.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, described the jobs report as “Goldilocks”—neither too strong nor too weak. He said it increased the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% last month. Employers added 139,000 jobs, showing a slight slowdown in labor demand compared to last year’s average monthly gain of 160,000. A rate cut could boost the economy and increase oil demand.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, noted that many negative market expectations have not occurred. He said OPEC+ has maintained its output discipline, and ongoing U.S.-China trade talks have helped ease tensions. China’s official news agency Xinhua confirmed that trade discussions took place at Washington’s request. President Trump called the talks “very positive” and said the U.S. is “in very good shape” with China on a trade deal.
Oil prices continue to fluctuate with news about tariffs and how trade uncertainty affects the global economy.
On Saturday, OPEC+ and allies including Russia agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, rejecting Saudi Arabia’s call for a larger hike. This cautious approach is part of OPEC+’s plan to regain market share while managing supply.
HSBC said the market looks balanced for the second and third quarters of the year. They expect oil demand to rise and peak in July and August, matching OPEC+ supply increases.
The U.S. oil rig count, a sign of future production, dropped by four to 559 last week—the lowest since November 2021, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs fell by nine to 442, while gas rigs rose by five to 114.
Analysts at BMI, part of Fitch, pointed to risks that could push prices higher, including potential new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and possible Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut its July crude prices for Asia to near two-month lows. This was a smaller reduction than expected after OPEC+’s agreement to boost output. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a bigger increase to regain market share and enforce discipline among OPEC+ members.
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