Crude oil prices were on track to post a weekly gain, despite a dip earlier today. The rise was driven by renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and growing concerns over supply risks in Venezuela and Iran.
As of writing, Brent crude was trading at $65.15 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $63.18. The boost followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said recent talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping ended on a “very positive” note. Trump added that the U.S. was “in very good shape with China and the trade deal,” according to Reuters.
In addition to trade optimism, geopolitical tensions also lifted prices. Analysts from BMI noted that the potential for tighter U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and the risk of Israeli strikes on Iranian energy sites could limit global crude supply, pushing prices higher.
However, the outlook remains mixed. BMI analysts also warned that weaker oil demand and rising production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers could put downward pressure on prices in the coming months.
Adding to the bearish signals, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that it expects oil demand to fall in 2025—the first annual decline since the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. In its latest World Energy Investment report, the IEA also projected a 6% drop in oil and gas exploration spending next year, reflecting weaker demand forecasts.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced another cut to oil prices for Asian buyers, marking the lowest levels in two months. However, the cut was smaller than expected, indicating some underlying strength in demand across Asia—the world’s largest oil-importing region.
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