China’s economy is expected to slow due to the ongoing trade dispute with the United States. However, recent power generation and consumption data suggest that the country’s industrial activity remains resilient, at least for now.
Despite concerns over GDP growth, electricity demand in China has stayed strong. The manufacturing sector—responsible for two-thirds of China’s power use—continued to expand in April, though growth slowed to 6.1% year-on-year from 7.7% in March.
The full economic impact of the U.S.-China tariff war may emerge in the months ahead. But current indicators show the Chinese economy is not as weak as some forecasts suggest. Electricity consumption, in particular, reflects steady industrial and service sector activity.
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) reported a 4.8% rise in electricity consumption in March, followed by a 4.7% increase in April. Total consumption reached 772.1 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in April alone. Power use in the primary industry grew by 13.8%, the secondary industry by 3%, and the service sector by 9% compared to last year.
From January to April, total power demand rose by 3.1% year-on-year. Analysts often view electricity demand as a key measure of economic strength in a manufacturing-driven economy like China’s.
China’s power generation figures may even understate the real growth. Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) do not include small-scale generators or rooftop solar installations, which have surged this year.
According to Rystad Energy, China added a record 60 gigawatts (GW) of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the first quarter of 2025. Of that, 60%—or 36 GW—came from rooftop PV systems, the highest quarterly increase for distributed solar in China’s history. Rystad expects rooftop installations to continue rising, with total distributed solar capacity projected to reach 130 GW this year, including 92 GW from commercial and industrial (C&I) projects and 38 GW from residential systems.
Industrial production also exceeded expectations, growing by 6.1% in April—above analyst forecasts of 5.5%. This suggests that current U.S. tariffs, which stand at 30% during the 90-day trade truce, have yet to cause major disruptions.
Still, uncertainties remain. China’s National Bureau of Statistics acknowledged that external conditions are unstable and unpredictable. The temporary pause in tariff escalation may offer breathing room, but longer-term effects of the trade conflict could still weigh on China’s economic outlook.
For now, though, electricity and industrial output indicate that China is handling the initial shock of the trade war better than expected. Whether this resilience continues will become clearer in the months ahead.
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