Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has urged the European Union to ease regulations and improve financing to help increase natural gas exports. He aims to boost exports to 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2027. However, recent data casts doubt on whether Azerbaijan can meet this target.
Data from Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic think tank, shows Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU have been flat over the last three years. In 2023, exports in the first quarter totaled 3.07 bcm. For the full year, Azerbaijan sent 12.39 bcm of gas to the EU, just slightly below 2024’s 12.66 bcm and 2022’s 12.26 bcm.
According to Bruegel’s latest import tracker, updated April 11, the EU still receives slightly more gas daily from Russia than from Azerbaijan.
This data highlights a dilemma in the energy relationship between Azerbaijan and the EU. Azerbaijan says the EU must support investments to expand pipeline capacity to meet the 20 bcm goal. But EU policymakers remain skeptical that Azerbaijan can supply enough gas to fill any new pipelines, making them hesitant to approve major infrastructure spending.
On April 9, Aliyev pressed Brussels, warning that if the EU does not expand the Southern Gas Corridor—a transit route already near full capacity—Azerbaijan will seek export markets “to the East, to the South.” He added that new gas discoveries and a domestic renewable energy program would free up more gas for export.
Speaking at an academic forum in Baku, Aliyev pointed out the contradiction between the EU’s immediate need for new fossil fuel suppliers to reduce dependence on Russian gas and its long-term goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 through renewable energy. He criticized EU customers for refusing to sign contracts beyond 2049 and accused the European Investment Bank (EIB) of halting financing for fossil fuel projects. Aliyev suggested the European Commission has enough influence to push the EIB to back the Southern Gas Corridor’s expansion.
“The European Commission should take off its glasses, look at the world realistically, and appreciate countries like Azerbaijan,” Aliyev said, according to a transcript on the presidential website.Some EU experts are reassessing Europe’s gas needs and questioning Azerbaijan’s role.
Yana Zabanova of the Germany-based Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung wrote that EU gas demand has been shrinking since 2022 due to lower industrial use, efficiency gains, and faster growth in renewables. She added that the EU’s climate goals for 2050 will continue to reduce gas imports. Additionally, a planned increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, mainly from Qatar starting in 2026, makes it uncertain how much gas Europe will need from Azerbaijan by decade’s end.
“Azerbaijan is an important but not an indispensable energy supplier for Europe,” Zabanova said. She also pointed to Azerbaijan’s poor human rights record, noting it has been a controversial partner. Many voices in the European Parliament have called for a critical reassessment of relations with Baku.
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