Half of all trucks sold in China are expected to be electric vehicles by 2028, according to Robin Zeng, chairman and CEO of CATL, a leading Chinese battery maker with over a third of the global EV battery market.
Zeng told the Financial Times that trucks powered by CATL batteries can cut costs by 35% per ton-kilometer compared to those with internal combustion engines.
Currently, more than a dozen Chinese truck manufacturers use CATL’s standardized batteries in around 30 electric truck models. The company is also building a battery swapping network across China to help drivers quickly exchange and recharge batteries.
If Zeng’s forecast proves accurate, it could disrupt both China’s automotive industry and global fuel markets. Chinese fuel demand is already stabilizing due to rising electric passenger car sales and more LNG-powered trucks. A surge in electric truck sales could accelerate the decline in fuel demand.
China’s demand for transport fuels is peaking after decades of growth, as electric and LNG trucks take market share from gasoline and diesel.
While overall oil demand in China is expected to rise 1.1% this year due to stronger economic growth and petrochemical demand, consumption of transport fuels has already peaked, according to CNPC’s think tank, the Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI).
The International Energy Agency (IEA) agrees, saying China’s shift from manufacturing to services and growing EV adoption suggest that petroleum fuel use for transport has plateaued, with little room for future growth.
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