China’s long-standing role as the world’s top driver of oil demand is nearing its end, according to new research from Moody’s Investors Service. The report predicts that China’s crude oil demand will peak within the next three to five years, while India is expected to lead global oil demand growth through at least 2030.
Moody’s attributes the slowdown in China to several key factors: a cooling economy, declining population, a plateau in car ownership, and a rapid shift to electric vehicles and alternative energy sources. These trends are reducing China’s appetite for crude.
In contrast, India’s oil demand is projected to grow by 3–5% annually throughout this decade. This increase is driven by rising per capita consumption, a growing population, and significant infrastructure development.
“India will remain the primary source of incremental global oil demand through 2030,” Moody’s analysts said. They also noted that India’s reliance on oil imports will increase, as domestic production continues to lag.
India’s Ministry of Petroleum reported a 4.3% year-over-year increase in crude consumption in the first quarter of 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that India’s daily oil demand will rise from 5 million barrels in 2023 to over 6.5 million barrels by 2030.
Meanwhile, signs of weakening demand in China are becoming more apparent. Earlier this year, OilPrice.com reported that Chinese refiners cut crude imports by nearly 600,000 barrels per day compared to last year, citing reduced industrial activity and record levels of EV adoption.
This shift in demand from China to India is likely to reshape global oil markets. It may influence future pricing, refining strategies, and upstream investment decisions. Exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasingly focusing on India as a key growth market, as China’s era as the world’s oil demand engine comes to a close.
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