Kazakhstan increased its oil production by 2% in May, exceeding its OPEC+ quota and challenging Saudi Arabia’s patience with members who overproduce. According to a Reuters industry source, Kazakhstan averaged 1.86 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the first 19 days of May, well above its OPEC+ target of 1.486 million bpd.
Earlier this month, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it would not cut crude and condensate output, a move necessary to meet OPEC+ obligations. However, the ministry insists that production will not rise further this year, noting that the Tengiz field—operated by Chevron and ExxonMobil—has reached its planned output level.
This is not Kazakhstan’s first time overproducing. In March, the country hit a record 2.17 million bpd of crude and condensate, largely due to Chevron’s 260,000-bpd expansion at Tengiz. Output fell slightly in April but still exceeded the quota. May’s increase adds pressure as OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia have started easing their own production to punish overproducers with lower prices.
Kazakhstan has pledged to “compensate” by cutting 1.3 million barrels from total output by 2026. Yet with Western oil majors controlling the largest fields, this promise remains mostly theoretical. Chevron’s CEO has openly said the company does not take part in OPEC+ coordination.
Despite pumping more, Kazakhstan’s revenues are falling. Oil prices near multi-year lows have caused the country’s National Oil Fund revenues to drop 43% year-on-year. Analysts warn that more withdrawals may be necessary later this year to cover budget shortfalls.
Kazakhstan is pushing output now, promising cuts later, and betting that no one wants to force a slowdown at Tengiz.
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