OPEC remains broadly optimistic about global oil demand growth, even as it faces economic and trade uncertainties, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday.
Al Ghais made the comments during the 17th Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC countries under the Charter of Cooperation. The session brought together OPEC+ representatives and select industry experts to review the oil market outlook in the short and medium term.
In his opening remarks, Al Ghais said OPEC still sees steady growth in the global economy. The group forecasts global economic growth at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
OPEC’s projections for oil demand remain unchanged. The organization expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2025 and 2026, as outlined in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
However, OPEC warned that falling oil prices are leading to lower investment in upstream activities, especially among producers outside the OPEC+ alliance. This could slow global supply growth.
According to the report, non-OPEC+ producers—such as the United States—are expected to increase output by 800,000 bpd in 2025. That’s 100,000 bpd less than OPEC’s previous estimate. U.S. crude oil and condensate production is projected to grow by 130,000 bpd in 2025, and by just 44,000 bpd in 2026.
OPEC also noted a downward trend in capital spending. Investment in U.S. exploration and production dropped 8% in 2024 to $125 billion. Further declines of 9% in 2025 and 7% in 2026 are expected.
The group emphasized the need for stable investment levels to support long-term supply security, even as it continues to anticipate steady demand growth.
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