Global oil consumption is expected to grow more slowly over the next two years, with the most significant slowdown projected in Asia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In January, the EIA forecast that oil demand in Asia would grow by an average of 0.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 2026. That estimate has now been lowered to 0.5 million b/d. The agency also revised global oil consumption growth downward by 0.4 million b/d for 2025 and by 0.1 million b/d for 2026 compared to its January outlook.
Most other regions—including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa—are expected to see smaller changes in demand. The United States, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil use, remains a key area to watch. Weekly trends in U.S. petroleum consumption can be tracked in the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
The main factor behind the global slowdown is weaker economic growth, especially in Asia. The EIA now forecasts global GDP to grow by just 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026. Excluding the downturns in 2009 and 2020, these would be the slowest rates since 2008.
Economic activity directly affects energy use. Rising populations, more travel, increased shipping, and industrial output all drive oil consumption. Since 2000, oil demand growth has been weakest during years when global GDP rose by less than 3%.
Preliminary estimates suggest global oil consumption averaged around 103 million b/d last year. However, recent economic signals suggest weakening demand. For example, the new tariffs announced by the United States in April may have already slowed international trade. Bloomberg data shows fewer container vessel departures, hinting at reduced global shipping. This slowdown could also affect trucking, employment, and travel, all of which influence fuel consumption.
Despite slower growth, oil demand is still expected to increase—though by less than 1 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026. That would mark the third straight year of sub-1 million b/d growth. For comparison, global oil consumption rose by an average of 1.3 million b/d annually in the 20 years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Kazakhstan Continues to Surpass OPEC+ Quota with Record Oil Production
- Azerbaijani Oil Price Approaches $79 on Global Markets
- Kazakh CPC Oil Exports Limited to 700,000 bpd Following Russian Suspension