Oil prices remain stagnant, with Brent crude near $65 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) following closely. Although the White House has eased back on tariffs, its recent trade warning to 150 countries has left markets uneasy. Despite these headwinds, several oil and gas companies continue to deliver strong performance.
While the broader S&P Energy sector is slightly down for the year, some firms are standing out with solid cash flows, shareholder returns, and strategic investments. Here’s a look at key players making gains amid uncertainty:
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
ExxonMobil continues to lead the sector. In the first quarter, it produced 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76, beating expectations. It returned $9.1 billion to shareholders. Capital spending remains steady at $28–33 billion annually through 2030. The company expects its breakeven Brent price to fall to $30 by the end of the decade.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Chevron is also performing well. It earned a “Buy” rating from Argus with a price target of $169. In Q1, EPS reached $2.18, and the company returned $6.9 billion to shareholders. Chevron is moving ahead with its acquisition of Hess. Its breakeven cost, about $30 per barrel, remains among the lowest in the industry.
TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE)
TotalEnergies is shifting toward liquefied natural gas (LNG), renewables, and hydrogen. Despite a drop in Q1 revenue, EPS stood at $1.83. LNG operations provided steady cash flow. The company raised its interim dividend by 7.6%, and its post-dividend breakeven price remains under $50.
EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT)
EQT, a leading U.S. natural gas producer, saw a 44% increase in EPS year-on-year. It is projected to more than double earnings in 2025. Strong hedging and disciplined operations make EQT a standout in the natural gas market.
Shell (NYSE: SHEL)
Shell is quietly making a comeback. While its stock has lagged, the company benefits from global LNG demand and improved financials. If oil prices rise or Europe increases LNG imports, Shell could gain significantly.
Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG)
Diamondback has built a reputation for efficiency. Operating mainly in the Permian Basin, the company remains profitable even with oil at $60. The stock is up 12% in 2025, reflecting investor confidence.
Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST)
Vista, a smaller Latin American firm, is showing strong momentum. Its U.S. listing and operations in Argentina and Mexico have attracted attention. The stock is up 18% year-to-date, emerging as a quiet growth play.
Market Outlook: Mixed Signals for Oil
Despite these strong individual performances, the broader market faces challenges. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand growth to slow—from 990,000 barrels per day in early 2025 to 650,000 barrels per day later in the year. This slowdown is linked to economic uncertainty and the rise of electric vehicles.
Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude will average $63 per barrel in 2025 and fall to $58 in 2026. It cites increased output from OPEC+ and global recession risks, especially from U.S.-China trade tensions. While the bank recently raised its oil demand forecast by 600,000 barrels per day for this year, it kept its price estimates unchanged.
Morgan Stanley expects global oil inventories to grow in 2025, adding 0.5 million barrels per day in Q2 and 0.7 million in Q4. This increase could put more downward pressure on prices, with Brent potentially dropping from $76 in Q1 to $61 by year’s end.
Bottom Line
In a challenging environment, companies with low breakeven costs, strong cash flow, and diversified assets are best positioned to succeed. Investors should focus on firms with operational discipline and flexibility to manage ongoing volatility in global energy markets.
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