Kazakhstan’s oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) are expected to decline in May, with daily shipments of CPC Blend crude from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk forecast to fall to around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.6 million bpd in April, according to Reuters sources.
The CPC pipeline is Kazakhstan’s primary export route for crude oil. However, recent months have seen repeated disruptions due to technical issues and rising geopolitical tensions.
In April, Russian authorities capped CPC exports at 1 million bpd after shutting down two of the three offshore moorings at Novorossiysk. The move followed safety inspections triggered by a December 2024 oil spill in the Kerch Strait. Although a Russian court later allowed two moorings to reopen, one remains offline, limiting the terminal’s full export capacity.
Russia, which holds a 24% stake in the CPC alongside U.S. energy giants Chevron and ExxonMobil, has blamed some of the disruptions on Ukrainian drone attacks. These include strikes on infrastructure such as the Kropotkinskaya pumping station and a nearby oil depot.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has struggled to stay within OPEC+ production quotas. Its output has exceeded limits, in part due to rising production at the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield, one of the country’s largest.
Amid these challenges, Kazakhstan is seeking to reduce its reliance on a single export route. In a bid to strengthen energy ties and broaden partnerships, the country recently signed over $5 billion in agreements with the United Arab Emirates. The deals cover projects in green energy, infrastructure, and digital development, according to the Astana Times.
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