Since tensions between the United States and Canada worsened under former President Donald Trump, the flow of crude oil through the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline has changed significantly.
According to data from Kpler cited by Reuters, China is now the largest buyer of Canadian crude shipped through the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline to Canada’s West Coast.
The pipeline expansion was completed last year after several delays. It increased the pipeline’s capacity from 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 890,000 bpd. This allows Alberta’s oil sands producers to transport much more crude oil to British Columbia’s coast.
The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline was expected to mainly supply refineries on the U.S. West Coast. However, President Trump’s trade policies and challenges to Canada’s sovereignty pushed Canada to diversify its crude oil exports. Canada wanted to reduce its heavy reliance on the U.S., which buys over 90% of Canadian crude.
Now, more crude from the pipeline is being sold to China. China wants to diversify its oil sources and reduce risks from ongoing U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. China has also stopped buying U.S. crude during the trade war and is unlikely to resume purchases soon, even during the recent 90-day tariff truce.
As a result, since the pipeline began full-capacity operations in June last year, Canada has shipped an average of 207,000 bpd of crude from the Trans Mountain pipeline to China. Meanwhile, shipments to the U.S. have averaged 173,000 bpd over the same period, according to Kpler’s data.
This shift highlights how changing geopolitics are reshaping global crude oil flows and trade patterns.
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