India has overtaken China as the world’s leading driver of oil demand growth, a shift happening sooner than many expected. The country’s appetite for oil shows no signs of slowing, according to the latest report from OPEC.
The report forecasts India’s oil demand will rise by 3.4% in 2025, reaching 5.74 million barrels per day (bpd). In 2026, demand is expected to grow another 4.3% to 5.99 million bpd. These growth rates are more than double China’s projected increases of 1.5% and 1.25% for the same years.
India’s strong economic momentum is fueling this surge. The rise in demand is supported by robust consumer spending, expanding manufacturing, and ongoing government investment. Diesel leads the increase, driven by road construction, transportation growth, and petrochemical demand. Bitumen use is also set to climb due to nationwide infrastructure projects.
Although the United States will remain the largest oil consumer with 20.5 million bpd in 2025, India is growing the fastest among major economies. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that India will contribute 25% of global oil demand growth this year, marking a significant shift from China’s long-standing dominance.
Recent data supports this trend. In January 2025, India’s fuel demand rose 3.2% compared to the previous year. Diesel consumption grew by 4.2%, and gasoline use jumped 6.7% year-on-year. While demand eased slightly from December’s holiday peak, it continues to rise steadily.
In March, India set a new record with crude oil imports reaching 5.4 million bpd. Russia remained the top supplier, accounting for 36% of the imports, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
With its rapid growth and rising energy needs, India has firmly established itself as the world’s fastest-growing oil market—well ahead of China, and positioned to hold that lead.
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