The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its forecast for 2025 Henry Hub natural gas spot prices, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on May 6. The EIA now expects the average price to be $4.12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down from its April projection of $4.27 per MMBtu.
For 2026, however, the EIA raised its forecast. It now sees Henry Hub prices averaging $4.80 per MMBtu next year, compared to its previous estimate of $4.60.
In the quarterly breakdown for 2025, the EIA projects prices to rise steadily through the year:
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Q2: $3.46 per MMBtu
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Q3: $4.19 per MMBtu
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Q4: $4.68 per MMBtu
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Q1 2026: $5.10 per MMBtu
This compares with April’s forecast of:
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Q2 2025: $3.93
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Q3: $4.34
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Q4: $4.68
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Q1 2026: $4.93 per MMBtu
According to the report, prices fell to $3.44 per MMBtu in April due to warm weather, which led to higher-than-expected natural gas storage levels. However, the EIA expects prices to climb as U.S. LNG exports increase and power sector demand rises during summer.
“Our forecast for Q3 2025 is nearly double last year’s price,” the EIA said. “This could lower natural gas use in the power sector compared to 2024.”
Industry forecasts vary. A May 1 report by BMI, shared by Fitch Group, projects Henry Hub prices to average $3.20 in 2025 and rise to $4.00 by 2028–2029. A Bloomberg consensus in the same report sees prices averaging $3.70 in 2024 and $3.90 in 2025.
Standard Chartered, in a May 6 note, expects lower prices, forecasting $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.30 in 2026, and $2.90 in 2027. Their quarterly outlook for this year includes $3.50 per MMBtu for Q2 and Q3, and $3.20 for Q4.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan sees a 2025 average of $3.80 per MMBtu and $3.31 for 2026. It expects short-term prices to peak at $4.00 in Q3 2024 before gradually declining next year.
The forecasts reflect market uncertainty influenced by weather, export trends, and global energy demand.
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