Asia’s economies, more exposed to global trade shocks than other regions, are finding some relief in falling oil prices. As crude prices drop to the low $60s per barrel, countries across Asia are taking advantage by increasing imports. However, experts caution that much of this buying is due to opportunistic stockpiling rather than a clear rise in demand.
The region remains the world’s largest importer of crude oil and a key market for producers like Russia and those in the Middle East. Lower oil prices help reduce import bills and offer short-term support for government budgets. But these savings are unlikely to fully offset the broader economic risks caused by global trade tensions—especially those stemming from U.S. policies.
The U.S. had imposed high tariffs on many Asian exports, though those measures are currently on hold until early July. In response, several Asian nations are seeking to deepen energy ties with the U.S., hoping to secure trade advantages.
Indonesia, for instance, is shifting some of its fuel imports from Singapore to the U.S. to improve its position in trade talks. Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the country is looking to balance economic and geopolitical interests.
India is also ramping up oil purchases from the U.S. and Russia. Russian crude, particularly the Urals grade, has become more attractive as prices dropped below the $60-per-barrel cap, making shipping easier and cheaper.
China, the world’s top oil importer, increased imports in April for the first time this year. Much of this oil came from discounted suppliers like Russia and Iran. Analysts believe China may have stockpiled over 1 million barrels per day in April alone. However, U.S. sanctions have started to disrupt Iranian oil flows, especially to smaller independent refineries known as “teapots.”
“Uncertainty and lower oil prices prompt aggressive stockpiling by Chinese majors,” said Emma Li, senior market analyst at Vortexa.
Elsewhere in Asia, cheaper crude is helping governments manage economic stress tied to shifting trade dynamics. But despite this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its growth forecasts for much of the region.
The IMF now expects China’s economy to grow just 4.0% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from its previous forecast. India’s outlook was also trimmed to 6.2%. Economies in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam, saw their projections revised downward as well.
In short, while low oil prices offer some financial relief, they are unlikely to shield Asia from the broader impacts of trade uncertainty and slower global growth.
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