On May 11, 2025, international oil prices once again became the focus of the global economy. Since the beginning of this month, the price of Brent crude oil has been fluctuating around $60. This trend clearly reflects the insufficient growth momentum of the global economy and the overall weak state. The uncertainty of OPEC‘s production increase plan, coupled with the unstable factors of the US tariff policy, has put severe pressure on the crude oil market, with prices continuously falling and reaching the lowest level so far this year.
Affected by the continuous decline of international oil prices, domestic oil prices have also followed the downward trend. The current round of oil price decline is significant and is approaching the “biggest drop this year”. It is expected that the oil price will show a significant downward trend in the coming week. Looking back to mid-April, the prices of gasoline and diesel dropped by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton respectively. According to market predictions, after mid-May, the prices of gasoline and diesel across the country may drop by more than 300 yuan per ton again. After the first oil price adjustment in May, the refueling costs for car owners will be further reduced, and the living cost pressure on the public will also be alleviated to a certain extent.
According to the domestic refined oil retail price adjustment mechanism (with a pricing cycle of ten working days), as of the fourth working day so far, the comprehensive crude oil variety change rate is -6.93%. Based on this prediction, the oil price will be reduced by 360 yuan per ton. If converted to the price per liter, the expected decline is approximately 0.30 yuan. The specific time for this oil price adjustment is 24:00 on May 19, 2025.
From the perspective of the international crude oil market, although the crude oil price rose yesterday, the overall trend remained at a low level. In the short term, international oil prices still face the risk of further decline, and investors need to closely monitor market dynamics. Recently, the fluctuations in the global energy market have intensified, and the price of crude oil has dropped to the lowest point of this year. At the close of crude oil trading on May 10th, the price of crude oil in the United States closed at $61.02 per barrel, up $1.11 from the previous day, with an increase of 1.85%. Brent crude closed at $63.91 a barrel, up $1.07, or 1.70%. Despite a single-day increase, the overall sluggish trend has not been fundamentally reversed. The uncertainty of the global economy and the complex factors on the supply side of the crude oil market continue to influence the oil price trend.
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