OPEC+ members involved in voluntary production cuts will meet earlier than planned, now scheduled for Saturday, May 3, instead of Monday, May 5. The virtual meeting, set for noon Vienna time, will focus on reaching agreement to continue the faster-than-expected supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, according to Kpler analyst Amena Bakr.
Brent crude fell nearly 1% by late Friday morning, trading at $61.56 per barrel. This marks the lowest price level since early 2021 and puts financial pressure on many OPEC+ members. For countries already limiting output, oil prices below $65 pose a serious challenge to balancing their budgets.
The decision to move the meeting earlier follows signs of internal friction. Reports suggest Saudi Arabia is willing to tolerate lower prices, seen as a warning to members like Iraq and Kazakhstan, who continue to exceed their quotas. The 411,000 bpd increase, initially intended as a message, may now become official policy—indicating a shift in Saudi Arabia’s strategy.
OPEC+ has pledged to offset 4.57 million bpd of excess production by mid-2026. But enforcing these limits has proven difficult. Saturday’s meeting will test whether Saudi Arabia and Russia can still lead the group or if rising noncompliance will spark a market-share battle.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey showed that OPEC’s actual oil output dropped by 200,000 bpd in April, reaching 27.24 million bpd. This contrasts with the group’s stated intention to raise production, adding to market uncertainty.
Traders are already expecting more supply, but April’s decline shows that planned increases do not always happen. Whether Saudi Arabia continues to absorb the impact while others overproduce—or begins using lower prices to pressure members into compliance—will depend not just on Saturday’s talks, but on what happens at oil fields across the region.
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