Crude oil markets were hit hard over the weekend after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected output increase for June. In a virtual meeting on Saturday, key producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). This is nearly three times the amount originally planned.
This decision follows a similar increase for May and signals a shift in OPEC+ strategy. The group, which previously focused on defending oil prices, now appears to be embracing a low-price approach. The move is partly aimed at disciplining countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq, which have exceeded their production quotas. Kazakhstan, for example, surpassed its March target by 422,000 bpd.
“OPEC+ has just thrown a bombshell to the oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “Saudi Arabia is punishing non-compliant members and also aligning with President Trump.”
President Trump has called for lower oil prices, and with tariffs rattling the global economy, OPEC+ seems to be aligning with the U.S. inflation-fighting agenda. Trump is set to visit the Middle East soon, which could lead to closer energy cooperation.
Oil prices were already under pressure, with Brent crude near $61 a barrel on Friday, a four-year low. The OPEC+ decision caused prices to fall another 6%, further fueled by concerns over trade wars and weaker economic data.
In response, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil forecast for December 2025, cutting its price prediction for Brent by $5 to $66 a barrel, and for WTI by $62. The bank cited rising OPEC+ supply and Trump’s tariffs as key factors. Goldman also noted that price volatility is likely to remain high due to increased recession risks.
Standard Chartered also revised its forecast, reducing its 2025 Brent estimate by $16 to $61 a barrel and cutting its 2026 forecast to $78. The bank linked the downgrade to recession fears caused by tariffs and a recent weak U.S. economic report.
JPMorgan raised its global recession odds to 60% for the year, while S&P Global warned that oil demand growth could drop by up to 500,000 bpd.
OPEC+ defended the output hike, citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals.” However, analysts suggest the move is part of a strategy to regain market share and enforce compliance among members. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets said that by increasing production, Saudi Arabia is reasserting control and allowing prices to fall as a way to discipline the market.
The eight OPEC+ members behind the increase—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will reassess the situation in June. For now, the message is clear: OPEC+ is no longer focused on maintaining high prices, and oil markets should brace for continued volatility.
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