US President Donald Trump may have revealed a key strategy behind OPEC‘s recent decision to increase oil production cuts, which has raised questions about the group’s motivations. On May 5, Trump remarked, “We’re in a good position to settle with Russia as oil prices are down,” referring to ongoing peace talks related to the war in Ukraine.
This comment came just days after OPEC’s unexpected announcement that it would reduce its production cuts for June—much more than analysts had anticipated. This move sent oil prices even lower, leaving traders puzzled about the reasoning behind it.
Some analysts now believe the decision may be linked to a broader strategy to weaken Russia’s economy. By increasing oil production, OPEC would drive prices down, hurting Russia’s oil revenues, a vital funding source for the Kremlin. However, this would also impact other oil-producing countries, including OPEC members and even major US oil companies.
Trump has consistently argued that reducing Russia’s oil income is a key way to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. If the US pushed Saudi Arabia to increase production, despite already weak oil prices, this could be a way to cut off a major financial lifeline to Russia.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, insists that its decision is based purely on market conditions, claiming it’s simply adjusting to changes in supply and demand. But past events suggest otherwise.
In 2020, when Russia refused to join deeper OPEC cuts, Saudi Arabia ramped up production in retaliation, sparking a price war that caused crude prices to plummet by nearly 70%. This event highlighted that Saudi Arabia is willing to use oil as a tool in geopolitical conflicts, and if the Trump administration is involved in this decision-making, Russia could once again find itself caught in the middle.
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