Oil and gas supermajors may scale back share buyback plans this week, as analysts warn of growing pressure from falling oil prices. A 12% decline in crude prices since the start of 2025 is raising questions about whether firms can maintain earlier pledges on dividends and repurchases.
Investment banks told Reuters that investors are more concerned with how energy giants like ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, and Shell plan to adapt to the weaker market than with their actual first-quarter profits. All four companies are set to report Q1 earnings this week, with BP releasing results on Tuesday and the others on Friday.
Some companies have already hinted at factors that could affect their earnings. Shell expects lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Q1, but it also sees improved performance from its Chemicals and Products unit, supported by better refining margins and higher utilization rates.
ExxonMobil, meanwhile, said Q1 earnings could be up to $2 billion higher than Q4, thanks to stronger oil and gas prices and better refining conditions.
Despite these improvements, analysts expect some firms may adjust their buyback plans. Chevron could opt for the lower end of its previously announced repurchase range, while BP might also reduce the pace of buybacks, according to people familiar with the matter.
Other firms may take different approaches. Italy’s Eni last week lowered its capital expenditure for 2025 and announced more cost-cutting efforts. However, it kept its commitment to shareholder returns, including both dividends and buybacks.
As Big Oil faces a tougher price environment, investor attention is now firmly on whether these companies will prioritize capital returns or protect their balance sheets.
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