Crude oil prices were on track to end the week slightly lower after reports surfaced that OPEC+ may increase output more than previously planned at its June meeting. Hopes for progress in Ukraine peace talks also added to the downward pressure on prices.
Despite the overall bearish sentiment, both major benchmarks were up slightly at the time of writing. Brent crude was trading at $66.98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $63.21. The weekly loss is expected to be small, but it reflects a continuing downward trend.
Earlier this week, Reuters reported that OPEC+ may consider raising production further to address non-compliance by some members. The group has struggled to get countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan to meet their output limits. Previous attempts to enforce compensatory cuts have not worked, according to unnamed sources cited by Reuters.
Kazakhstan has been particularly resistant. Its energy minister said the government cannot force independent oil operators to reduce production and will not cut output from state-run fields, as this would hurt future capacity.
Energy analyst Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects responded by saying, “Kazakhstan’s statement cements our view that OPEC+ may implement another accelerated three-month unwind again in the May meeting and it may continue again in July and through the summer.”
Geopolitical developments also weighed on market sentiment. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told CBS that Moscow and Washington were making progress on a Ukraine deal. “We are ready to reach a deal, but there are still some specific points… which need to be fine-tuned,” he said.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicated openness to renewed talks on the country’s nuclear program with European leaders. His statement hinted at a willingness to ease tensions, which could eventually lead to the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
Together, these signals from major oil-producing and politically sensitive regions are shaping a market outlook that leans bearish, at least for now.