Alaska’s crude oil production is expected to rise by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, reaching 438,000 b/d, according to the March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook. This increase follows years of steady decline and is expected to be the first significant production boost since 2017. The Nuna and Pikka projects are anticipated to drive this growth.
Crude oil production in Alaska peaked at 2.0 million b/d in 1988, but it has steadily decreased over the years due to factors such as aging oil fields, limited lease availability, and high production costs.
ConocoPhillips began oil production from the Nuna project in December 2024. In 2025, Alaska’s average crude oil production is forecast to be 422,000 b/d, marking a slight increase of 1,000 b/d compared to the previous five-year average, which saw a decline of 9,000 b/d annually. The Nuna project, located on the North Slope, is expected to offset this decline, with its 29 wells projected to reach a peak output of 20,000 b/d.
The Pikka project, a joint venture between Santos and Repsol, is set to further boost production in 2026. This development, also on the North Slope, aims to produce 80,000 b/d from 45 wells at its peak. If both the Nuna and Pikka projects come online as planned, they will become some of Alaska’s most productive wells.
According to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, by December 2024, 22% of the wells for these two projects had been drilled. The companies plan to drill an additional 58 wells by 2028, maintaining a high level of rig activity.
The increased oil output will primarily supply refineries in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and California.
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