India has become the top contributor to global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025, surpassing China for the first time, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Historically, China has been the largest driver of global oil consumption, outpacing India year after year from 1998 to 2023. However, in the coming years, India is set to account for 25% of global oil consumption growth. The global demand for liquid fuels is expected to increase by 0.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, with an even higher rise of 1.3 million bpd projected for 2025.
India’s oil consumption is forecast to grow by 220,000 bpd in 2024 and 330,000 bpd in 2025. This growth will be driven by increasing demand for transportation fuels and fuels for cooking, making India the largest contributor to global consumption growth in both years.
Meanwhile, China’s oil consumption is expected to rise by 90,000 bpd in 2024 and by 250,000 bpd in 2025. While China’s growth is slower, it remains the world’s largest oil consumer, with oil demand limited by factors such as growing electric vehicle adoption, rising use of liquefied natural gas in trucking, a declining population, and slower economic growth. Most of China’s oil consumption growth is linked to the manufacturing of petrochemicals.
Despite India’s growth surpassing China’s in both percentage and volume terms, China continues to consume far more oil. In 2023, India’s total liquid fuels consumption was 5.3 million bpd, compared to China’s 16.4 million bpd.
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