Oil prices saw a slight increase on Monday as traders waited for decisions from OPEC+ and navigated a clouded US-China trade situation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was priced around $63.28 for the third consecutive day after a 1% drop last week.
Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia, noted that “there’s no new news” and that traders are positioning themselves cautiously ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for May 5. Concerns about a potential production increase and ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are dampening market sentiment.
The US and China are sending conflicting signals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen dampened hopes for new trade talks, while President Trump had earlier expressed optimism. Beijing has denied that any trade discussions are ongoing.
Beyond trade, geopolitical tensions are also adding volatility. Investors are closely watching nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed limited optimism. In a separate development, an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port killed at least 40 people and injured more than 1,200, raising concerns about the stability of infrastructure in a major oil-producing country.
Meanwhile, progress in US-Ukraine talks has been made, but markets remain focused on trade disputes as the primary economic concern.
Several key factors are influencing oil market sentiment:
- Uncertainty around Iran’s nuclear talks
- Risks of disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply
- Cautious optimism for a potential Russia-Ukraine deal
- Signals from the IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting on global demand
On the technical side, WTI Crude is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart. The price is currently above the 50-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.88, with support at $62.27 and resistance at $63.67. A breakout above $63.67 could drive prices higher to $64.26 and $64.84, while a drop below $62.27 could see prices fall to $61.81.
Trade Setup:
- Buy Breakout: Above $63.67
- Targets: $64.26 and $64.84
- Support to Watch: $62.27
- Stop-Loss: Below $61.81
Traders are advised to wait for a clear breakout before entering, as false price movements are common when patterns are at their apex.
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