In just ten days, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has shifted from praising shale oil’s resilience to warning that $50 oil is not sustainable for producers. Speaking to Bloomberg’s Stephen Stapczynski, Wright said today that low prices threaten the health of the sector.
Earlier this month, Wright had taken a much more optimistic tone. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said shale production could still grow even with oil prices at $50 per barrel. He praised the industry’s resilience, innovation, and its ability to survive tough times, pointing to the 2015-2016 downturn as evidence.
However, with West Texas Intermediate crude now trading around $62.86 and the industry still recovering from a $10-per-barrel plunge this month, Wright’s messaging has turned sharply.
This shift highlights the difficult position U.S. shale faces in 2025. The sector is caught between political pressures and financial realities. Former President Trump continues to push for aggressive drilling while also demanding lower gasoline prices for consumers. Meanwhile, Wall Street expects companies to prioritize shareholder returns over production growth.
Shale producers, for their part, are seeking stable policies and more predictable oil prices. Recent market volatility, including swings of $10 per barrel in just 30 days, has made planning difficult.
Wright still believes in the long-term future of shale. Past experience supports his view. But today’s conditions make it hard for producers to survive at $50 per barrel. The recent wave of mergers and acquisitions has created larger companies that are more focused on delivering profits than on maximizing output.
Adding to the uncertainty are broader global issues, including a fragile economic outlook, the possibility of a U.S.-China trade agreement, and internal disputes within OPEC+. All these factors are weighing heavily on oil markets.
In theory, shale production could grow at $50 oil. But in practice, the road looks much harder.
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