The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, lowering it to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd). This adjustment is mainly attributed to the anticipated impact of recently imposed U.S. tariffs.
In its monthly oil market report, OPEC noted a decrease from its previous forecast of 1.45 million bpd for 2025. The organization also lowered its demand outlook for 2026, revising the growth forecast to 1.28 million bpd, down from an earlier projection of 1.43 million bpd.
OPEC explained that the global economic outlook now faces greater uncertainty due to the effects of these tariffs. As a result, the group has reduced its global economic growth projections to 3 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent for 2026. The U.S. economic growth forecast has also been downgraded to 2.1 percent for 2025 and 2.2 percent for 2026.
For the eurozone, which has been grappling with slow growth, OPEC slightly revised its 2025 growth forecast lower. However, the report suggested that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures could help cushion the impact of the tariffs.
OPEC also acknowledged that China might face significant challenges from ongoing trade disputes. Despite this, the report noted that China has resources to offset the negative effects, such as domestic economic stimulus and the diversification of its export markets.