Eight OPEC+ countries will need to compensate for 4.57 million barrels per day (bpd) of overproduction, with plans to offset all above-quota output by June 2026. The affected countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—submitted their compensation plans to OPEC on Wednesday.
Since the first OPEC+ agreement in 2016, the group has struggled with overproduction from certain members, which has undermined the effectiveness of production cuts. This issue has muddled the true supply figures from OPEC+ to the global market.
The compensation plans are set to involve the largest monthly offsets between May and October 2025, with smaller amounts in 2026. In practice, this means OPEC+ members will produce less than planned in 2025 to make up for the 411,000 bpd increase starting in May 2025.
However, OPEC+ has struggled with full compliance in the past. Countries like Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have repeatedly failed to meet their quotas. In March, just before the planned production increase, OPEC+ raised its output to an eight-month high, according to the Platts OPEC+ Survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
According to the survey, OPEC+ producers exceeded their overall output ceiling by 319,000 bpd in March. As OPEC+ begins easing cuts in April and plans further increases in May, the group’s compliance issues continue. OPEC has suggested that the production boost in May could offer countries an opportunity to accelerate their compensation efforts.
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